The NY Fed recently updated its recession probability model with November data. The likelihood of Recession over the next 12 months has risen to 38 percent. Every time the model has reached this level in the past the economy has either been in a recession or one has followed. While equity markets are down moderately this year, in our view that is a reaction to sharply higher yields, not an expectation of falling earnings that would correspond with a recessionary environment. That adjustment likely lies ahead next year.